Is Pakistan General Election 2023 ready?
In a recent meeting held in Dubai, the top leadership of Pakistan’s major political parties, namely the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP), engaged in extensive discussions on a wide range of political issues. These discussions revolved around the forthcoming general elections scheduled for October of this year. However, the outcome regarding the timing of the elections remains uncertain, with the possibility of extending them until at least March of next year. This insight was shared by an insider present in Dubai, who is well-informed about the talks and developments.
Among the topics deliberated, the future interim setup and the selection of the caretaker prime minister were discussed. The potential candidates for this role include individuals from the financial sector or retired Supreme Court (SC) judges. Since the assemblies in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) have already been dissolved, the current caretaker setup will continue until the General Election 2023. In fact, one retired SC judge revealed that he was approached to express his consent for the position.
While there is almost a consensus on dissolving the national and provincial assemblies in August as per the schedule, the candidacy of three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif for the upcoming General Election 2023 remains uncertain. Despite the removal of legal obstacles, his lifetime disqualification still prevents him from participating. Consequently, Nawaz Sharif has not yet announced his return date to Pakistan. The party believes that until his name is cleared, it will be challenging for him to come back and actively engage in the party’s campaign.
Nawaz Sharif return to Pakistan
Given the circumstances, the possibility of Nawaz Sharif’s return before mid-September seems highly unlikely. Due to the court’s summer vacations, it is improbable that his plea will be taken up before mid-August. Furthermore, the party is hesitant to file any application before the Supreme Court while Chief Justice Umer Ata Bandial is still in office. It is worth noting that Chief Justice Bandial is set to retire on September 17, 2023.
On the other hand, the PPP and former President Asif Ali Zardari advocate for early elections, preferably within 90 days after the dissolution of the assemblies. Unlike the PML-N or the Sharif family, they do not face the same challenges.
From a legal standpoint, opinions differ regarding the possibility of postponing elections for six months or a year, unless there is an exceptional circumstance such as war or a major national calamity. While there are some parameters for a financial emergency, it will not be easy to further delay the elections, according to sources.
Therefore, it is evident that the situation is not advantageous for the PML-N or former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. However, the PPP leadership is prepared to collaborate with the PML-N if all legal obstacles are cleared and Sharif is allowed to return and participate in the polls.
General Election 2023
During their discussions, the two sides also considered the General Election 2023 scenario in the event that both parties and their allies secure a majority and establish a grand coalition government. However, they agreed that it is premature to delve into discussions about the future prime minister.
Nonetheless, informal conversations did touch upon potential candidates. According to sources, the PPP leadership inquired whether Nawaz Sharif would consider running for the premiership for the fourth time, contingent upon clearance from the court. Similar questions were posed to Zardari, indicating that both parties have their preferred candidates for the top position. Notably, at this stage, the names of PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Maryam Nawaz were not brought up for discussion.
The leadership of the PML-N remains optimistic that Nawaz Sharif’s name will be cleared, allowing him to participate in the upcoming general elections. The legal battle is ongoing as Sharif was handed a lifetime disqualification in 2017 by the Supreme Court in the Panama case, a decision that the PML-N criticized as being influenced by the establishment and judiciary. Consequently, he was unable to contest the 2018 elections, leading to his political rival Imran Khan assuming the role of prime minister. It is only natural for Sharif to desire a return to power in order to challenge the legitimacy of his ousting in 2017 and prove that it was unjust and unlawful.
A pressing question for all parties and their leadership is the future and fate of the Chairman of Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), who arguably remains one of the most popular leaders in Pakistan. Both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan are currently in the race until the court convicts and disqualifies Imran Khan.
The PTI is undoubtedly going through one of its most challenging periods, especially following the May 9 protest and the attack on sensitive military and intelligence agency buildings, such as the GHQ, Corps Commander House in Lahore, and approximately 200 other locations, as stated by the DG, ISPR. Some party workers, activists, and local leaders are likely to face trials in military courts. It is yet to be determined whether the party chairman will also be indicted in this case and face trial in military courts.
Sharif, Zardari, and their respective parties share a common political rivalry with Imran Khan and the PTI. They would undoubtedly prefer to see Khan “disqualified” and defend their stance by citing their own examples.
While the two sides have a history of rivalry and mistrust, their confidence in each other has grown over the past 14 months since they jointly ousted their common rival, Imran Khan, in April of the previous year through a vote of no confidence. Although many within the PPP and PML-N view their young leaders, Bilawal and Maryam, as potential future prime ministers, both Zardari and Nawaz are still contenders in the race.
PPP broke away from the PDM
In December 2020, the PPP broke away from the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) due to differences regarding whether they should resign before the long march to Islamabad or wait until they reached the federal capital. The PPP did not rejoin the PDM, nor did the latter attempt to bring back the mainstream party into its fold.
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Many political analysts believe that General Election 2023 are the ultimate test of a leader’s and party’s popularity. Presently, the PTI is raising concerns about the impartiality of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), echoing similar complaints made by the PML-N in 2018. The ECP’s ability to address these concerns, ensuring free and fair elections held in a timely manner, will only be evident once the assemblies are dissolved on August 11th. It is also worth noting that 2023 marks the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Constitution, adding significance to the upcoming elections.