The extremely severe cyclonic storm named “Biparjoy” in the northeast Arabian Sea has continued its north-northwestward movement in the past 12 hours. It has weakened and transformed into a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS), currently positioned near Latitude 20.7°N and Longitude 67.1°E. It is situated approximately 470 kilometers south of Karachi and 460 kilometers south of Thatta.
Cyclone Biparjoy Approaches Karachi Less Than 500 Km Away
The cyclonic storm exhibits maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 140 to 150 kilometers per hour, accompanied by gusts reaching up to 170 kilometers per hour near its center. The sea conditions surrounding the system center are exceptionally severe, characterized by phenomenal waves reaching a maximum height of 30 feet.
The predicted duration will witness the cyclonic storm benefiting from favorable environmental conditions that contribute to its sustenance and strength. These conditions include a sea surface temperature ranging between 29°C and 31°C, minimal vertical wind shear, and upper-level divergence.
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Based on the prevailing upper-level steering winds, the very severe cyclonic storm “BIPARJOY” is expected to continue its northward trajectory until the morning of June 14th. Subsequently, it is projected to change its course and move northeastward, crossing between Keti Bandar (Southeast Sindh) and the Indian Gujarat coast on the afternoon or evening of June 15th. As it reaches this region, it will maintain its intensity as a very severe cyclonic storm, accompanied by powerful winds ranging from 100 to 120 kilometers per hour. The cyclone warning center in Karachi, operated by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), is diligently monitoring the system and will provide updates accordingly.
Impacts Prediction of Cyclone Biparjoy:
As the cyclonic storm is expected to approach the southeast Sindh coast, extensive weather conditions are anticipated. This includes the likelihood of widespread wind, dust, and thunderstorm activities, accompanied by substantial to extremely heavy rainfall. The affected districts, namely Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas, and Umerkot, are expected to experience these weather phenomena from June 13th to June 17th. Additionally, squally winds reaching speeds of 80 to 100 kilometers per hour, with gusts up to 120 kilometers per hour, are also expected.
In Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Nawabshah, and Sanghar districts, the weather conditions are expected to bring about dust, thunderstorm, and rain, with a few instances of heavy precipitation. These weather events will be accompanied by squally winds ranging from 60 to 80 kilometers per hour. These conditions are likely to occur from June 14th to June 16th.
The squally winds, characterized by their high intensity, have the potential to cause damage to structures that are loosely constructed or vulnerable, such as kutcha houses. Additionally, other installations like solar panels may also be susceptible to damage.
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At the landfall location, particularly around Keti Bandar, a storm surge of 3-3.5 meters (8-12 feet) is anticipated. This surge has the potential to inundate low-lying settlements located in the affected areas.
In light of the rough and high sea conditions expected in the Arabian Sea, accompanied by high tides along the coast, fishermen are strongly advised not to venture into the open sea until the system has passed. This cautionary measure remains in effect until June 17th.